Pre-Budget 2008-2009 Analysis by Investorline

Pre-Budget Analysis

WITH JUST few days to go for the annual budget of 2008-09, it is time to speculate as to what changes can be expected in this budget. Budget is an important & most awaited event in the economic life of our country, with key pronouncements on taxes, financial allocations and benefits, and on developmental agenda. But what changes can be expected? There are questions galore and the expectations from the Finance Minister are sky-high. Will this be the budget where building the infrastructure backbone of the economy be further advanced by extending support to the Bharat Nirman program? Will the budget bring in cheers to millions through a much-awaited cut in income tax rates? Or will the Finance Minister succumb to the electoral necessities and present a 'populist' budget? Will there be any measures to counteract the effects of the recession of the United States economy?

Economic Outlook:

The Indian economy has been one of the best-performing economies globally in CY07. The Government of India and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) have been able to mitigate the threat of rising inflation and inflationary expectations through several fiscal and monetary measures. According to the Central Statistical Organisation estimates, the economy is on course to grow by 8.6% in 2007- 08. The government, in its bid to sustain the high growth, is looking at policy adjustments to capture the mood of the nation. This is especially in view of recent global uncertainties and developments. In earlier Bugdets, more emphasis was laid on reducing the inflation rate, but it is expected that in the current budget emphasis would be laid on both controlling the inflation as well as sustaining high GDP growth rate. Needless to say, these twin issues will remain high on the priority list of the Finance Minister, as he gives final touches to the Budget document. Along with these, increased allocations for a balanced and inclusive growth will be important for him in his last full Budget before the general elections in 2009. For the first time, direct tax collections have surpassed indirect tax collections which are in line with the developed economies across the globe. During the first nine months of the current fiscal, personal income-tax collections rose by50%and corporate tax revenues by 39.84% compared with the same period last year. Such a phenomenal increase in the net tax collection could be attributed to strong economic growth, better tax administration and relatively improved compliance levels. Finance Minister had indicated that there could be a significant revamp in the taxation schemes. The direct taxes could be reduced from the existing 33.6 per cent, inclusive of surcharge to about 25 - 30 per cent. Thus, the reduction in the direct taxes would come as a sigh of relief to the several individuals as well as corporate who are affected by the direct taxes. Reducing the tax rates could also provide an incentive to taxpayers to declare their entire income honestly so that the overall tax collections can be improved. Plus the surcharge on tax, which is paid, by individuals and association of people who have an annual income greater than Rs 10 lakh is expected to reduce. Currently, there is 10 per cent surcharge on personal and corporation income tax, which may plummet in this budget. It could come down to as low as 5 per cent. Partnership firms and domestic organizations, whose income is greater than Rs 1 crore would also benefit from this. With such positive signs on the tax compliance and collections front, the common man is definitely looking at great expectations from the finance minister.

Domestic and global developments that will shape Budget 2008-09:

We are probably in the midst of the strongest growth run in the post-independence India. All the structural factors necessary for a sustained high growth phase seems to be in place but some cyclical headwinds are probably making our journey a little more turbulent than what we would have otherwise liked. The key concerns for the 2008-09 year are: a) possible inflationary pressure from food and oil, b) a slowdown in the growth rate from the heights of the past two years, c) increased pressure on fiscal, and d) the continued availability to funds to complete the ongoing investment cycle at viable interest rates. Our achievement on growth front, over the Tenth Plan period was very close to target and it is no surprise that the Eleventh Plan wants to take us closer to our aspirational target of double-digit growth. While the growth process has gathered its own momentum, Union Budget 2008-09 is expected to remove the hurdles towards conquering the next frontier by extending the reforms process to reap long-term gains. In the short run, maybe a little demand fillip will do wonders for an economy where incoming data have been flashing some intermittent signs of growth concerns. Let us take a look at the economic and political backdrop against which the contours of the Union Budget 2008-09 will be drawn up.

1) Focus on GDP Growth & Sustained Balanced Growth:

With regards to the composition of GDP, the percentage shares of various sectors have largely changed. The percentage share of the agriculture in the total GDP has declined, on the contrary the percentage share of services in theGDPis rising faster. The percentage share of various sectors of India's Economy in the total GDP in the earlier years is as follows:

As to the above diagram, the contribution of India's agriculture to the total GDP of the country is experiencing a declining trend. On the contrary the percentage share of services sector to the total GDP is rising at a faster pace. In the latest data we can see that the share of services has increased to 55.1% and that of agriculture has reduced to 18.5%. Keeping in view the poor performance of the agriculture in India's Economy, the upcoming Budget 2008-09 is expected to come with more perks for the farmers in India. More over the Budget 2008-09 is expected to draw more attention on consumption led growth, which is needed for strengthening and sustaining the economic growth of the country. India's GDP growth has averaged about 8.8% over the past four years. This has been made possible by continued investments over these years, ably supported by growing consumption. The main focus of the government is to maintain the GDP growth rate as the recent weakness in global economies has added an element of uncertainty to the prospects of sustained high growth rates in the future. The target GDP growth rate for the Eleventh Five Year Plan is9%and this year's budget is expected to contain such measures, which will facilitate sustenance of healthy GDP growth rates. Towards this, continued measures for the power, roads, highways, ports and other infrastructure are expected. The fund requirement for this purpose is put at more than $450 bn (Rs.18 trn) over the 2007-12 Five Year Plan. Of these, the estimated requirement in the transport infrastructure segment alone is over Rs.6 trn comprising railways (Rs.2.5 trn), roads (Rs.3 trn), ports (Rs.740 bn) and airports (Rs.350 bn).

2) Political Angle to the Budget:

One thing we cannot ignore is that this will be the last budget of the current coalition government. The Lok Sabha election is due, in 2009, and the United Progressive Alliance, with the dispute over the nuclear deal with the Left, has been on the brink of divorce. Thus, the FM might not present a budget that could stir up a political storm and bring the ruling government down. He would rather play safe. We might expect a popular budget with the aim of appeasing specifically targeted sections of the voting community. Thus vote bank politics could again play a vital role in this year's annual budget. However, Finance Minister P Chidambaram would be in a tight corner to maintain a fine balance between fiscal discipline and political demands arising from the next General Elections. With the first year already gone without a Plan in place, political constraints in the second year of the Plan, will further diminish the chances of the Eleventh Plan (2007-11) being implemented in letter and spirit. This being the terminal year for the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act (FRBMA), the Finance Ministry will not be in a position to create extra resources needed to meet both political requirements and economic demands for growth. Indications are that the Budget will depend heavily on generating extra funds through Public Sector Undertakings. However, the Budget would have to make provision for the schemes already announced during the course of the year. Thus, funds would have to be provided for the Skill Development Mission, schemes relating to the agricultural sector like Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojna and the Food Security Mission, clubbed with additional commitments in the education and health sectors. Availability of funds will be further constrained, as both the Central government and States will have to earmark funds for implementing the Sixth Pay Commission Report. With the Railway Ministry already being asked to keep apart Rs 9,000 crore for this purpose, indications are that the burden on the Central government alone would be to the tune of Rs 30,000 crores. Mr Chidambaram would thus have to keep a careful watch so that inflation does not get out of hand while ensuring that positive trends in the core sectors of the economy are not adversely affected beyond a point. In short, the Budget is set to witness a tug of war between demands economic growth and political wish lists.

3) Focus on Inflation Control:

Headline inflation for most part of FY08 has been benign to say the least. This could be a positive outcome of a judicious mix of fiscal and monetary policies and could be highlighted as one of the success stories of last year's budget. Inflation management has been accorded top priority by policymakers across the globe. The conscious policy choice of reducing import duties and banning futures trading in some agri commodities has helped in reining in headline inflation numbers. Global inflation has been on an uptrend in the later half of 2007, riding on crude oil reaching the magical 3 figure mark and food prices forcing inflation to reach multi-year highs in both developed and developing nations. The apparent immunity of Indian inflation to these global developments should not be thought of as resilience. Although a rapidly appreciating rupee has mitigated some of the impact of imported inflation, there is still incomplete pass-through. Some harsh decisions need to be taken as early as possible to align domestic prices with international prices in both the energy and food sectors because increasing off-balance sheet exposure (oil bonds) is making the financial health of the government a little more fragile.

4) Education & Rural Development:

Education and Rural development would get top priority in the coming Union Budget as said by the Finance Minister. Education sector is being given importance as literacy alone could make India a super power. The UPA Government in the last three years had allocated Rs 28,600 crore for the education sector lending, of which Rs 17,636 crore had already been distributed. The amount was four times more than what was allocated during the BJP-ledNDA regime, the Finance Minister said. The government could announce a special scheme in the coming Union Budget. “It (the scheme) may be christened Rashtriya Madhyamik Shiksha Abhiyan (RMSA) and may be in line with the 11th Plan (2007-12) objective of improving gross enrolment ratio and also to reduce inequalities. A tentative allocation of Rs500 crore for preparation work for the scheme is being worked out to be announced in the Union Budget of 2008-09,” said a senior government official, who did not wish to be identified. The Centre plans to spend Rs 35,567 crore on improving secondary education in the 11th Plan and will contribute75%of the total funds required for the programme, with the states putting up the rest. In the 12th Plan, this ratio is expected to be 50:50. Rural development may get substantially more funds in this budget - about Rs 50000 crore from Rs 41000 crore last year. Allocations for rural development in the national budget have been rising steadily in India. In 2004-05, it was Rs 16000 crore, which went up to Rs 24700 crore in 2005-06 and Rs 31000 crore in 2006-07. It was Rs 41000 crore in the 2007-2008. Substantial increase is likely to be announced in the social sector schemes and those relating to rural development, including the Horticulture Mission, Rural Water Supply Scheme, Rural Sanitation Programme, Sarv Siksha Abhiyan, National Rural Health Mission, NREGP, Indira Awas Yojna (rural housing), Pradhan Manrti Gram Sadak Yojna, Accelerated Power Development Programme(APDP), Integrated Child Development Scheme, Jawaharlal Nehru Urban Renewal Mission, Rashrtriya Krishi Vikas Yojna, and Backward Region Grant Fund.

5) Capital Flows:

The other macroeconomic factor, which has dominated economic debates in the last year or so and will be a crucial consideration for this year's budget, is the deluge of capital flows that the country has received. Finance Minister has himself dubbed them as 'copious' and it seems that this process of receiving foreign flows is going to sustain for some time to come. While in FY07 there was a BoP surplus of USD 35bn on the back of around USD 46bn of capital flows, it will not be a surprise if both these numbers would double in FY08! Monetary policymakers have been torn between letting the rupee appreciate and intervening in the currency markets to inject more rupee liquidity, which could be potentially inflationary in nature. Rupee has been one of the strongest appreciating currencies in the Asian region in 2007 even while RBI has continued its policy of back-to-back intervention and sterilization of the rupee liquidity through issuance of Market Stabilization bonds and CRR hikes.

6) Stock Markets:

Riding on robust economic growth and extremely positive business sentiment, the buoyant and largely bullish stock market, has also contributed significantly to the excellent growth in tax collections, with collection of securities transaction tax (STT) growing by a sharp 57.61% in the current fiscal. To top it, increased investor interest in equities induced by strong economic fundamentals, robust flows from foreign institutional investors and an attractive short-term capital gains tax rate have also contributed to the increased tax collections. People are investing like never before and the per capita income has increased manifold. The government must be keen to capitalize on this investment boom and strike a balance between inflation and growth.

7) Mutual Fund Industry:

Indian Mutual Fund industry has recorded and astonishing growth of 71% in AUM in this year. The AUM increased from about 3.21-lakh crore in Dec 2006 to 5.49 lakh crore in Dec 2007. The mutual fund industry has become more mature now and has given more products this year. TheMFindustry also has certain expectations from the coming budget. Its wishlist includes: Indian mutual fund firms have asked the government to allow them to offer investors multiple tax planning equity funds, seeking relaxation of a rule that limits the options they can offer to customers. A regulation framed in 2005 restricts them to just one such fund or equity linked savings scheme (ELSS), limiting options for investors who have been increasingly using them to save tax. Two years ago, India allowed savers to claim tax benefit on investment of up to 100,000 rupees in ELSS, making them hugely popular among investors with assets of such funds rising nearly 25 times to 154 billion rupees in past three years The industry also wants fund of funds (FoFs), which invest in equity schemes, and other funds investing in overseas equities to be treated as equity funds to enable them to pay less tax. Indian regulations classify funds investing more than 35 percent of assets in foreign equities and FoFs as debt funds and subject to higher taxes, making them unattractive. Dividend Distribution Tax on corporates and equity and non-liquid Mutual Funds to be reduced to 10%from 15% at present. Dividend Distribution Tax on money market and Liquid Mutual Funds to be reduced to 10% from 25% at present. Sec 80C deduction level to be raised from Rs1 lakh to Rs3 lakh. Howmuch of this wishlist gets achieved waits to be seen, given our coalition based policy.

8) Managing the Exchange rate shock:

The recession of the United States economy has meant that the rupee has appreciated a great deal. The exporters are feeling the brunt as their profit margins continue to go down. It is predicted that this trend is likely to continue. The RBI is expected to address this issue through its monetary policy and tax cuts in order to reduce the load on the exporters can also be expected. The suddenness and the magnitude of the exchange rate shock has affected several sectors in the economy which were export dependent with limited import content and did not have enough profit margins. Anecdotal and industry estimates suggest possibility of huge job losses in several industries including textiles and the approach of Finance Minister to address this issue could be one of the highlights of Budget 2008-09. Most likely this is going to be the last budget of Finance Minister before the general elections. So there will be expectations from him to satisfy a large number of pressure groups who will be the key to electoral success. It will be the Finance Minister's endeavor to see that the resultant force of these often opposing demands does not lead to a lopsided budget, which will be a setback for economic reforms. The last piece in the backdrop for this year's budget will be the slowly unfolding global developments. After almost 4 years of unprecedented global growth, there is a possibility that the global economy might enter a phase of moderation in 2008, mainly on the back of a severe slowdown in the US economy. At a macro level budget policy formulation by the Finance Minister will have to take into account all the above factors.

1) Indirect Taxes:

In the previous Budget, the peak import duty was brought down to 10%. The Government is committed to bringing down import duties to Asean levels. In addition to this, currently there is an overriding concern of rising inflation. On the other hand, adequate protection is needed for several emerging/weaker sectors. Moreover, the Finance minister also has to consider the revenue implications. The slowing global growth can impact India's GDP growth, going ahead and consequently tax collections also. Taking into account these factors, we expect moderation in import duties with continued protection to few sectors. The Finance Minister has already indicated that diverse rates of excise duty on various goods are expected to converge at the Cenvat rate of 16%.We expect further steps in this direction. Growth in excise duty collections in the first nine months of FY08 has been about 5.1%, which is lower than the target growth of about 11% for the fiscal. Thus, there may not be significant reduction in excise duty rates.We also expect the CST rate to be further reduced from 3% levels, in line with the process started in the previous Budget. The contribution of service tax to overall tax revenues of the Government is lower when compared to the fact that services account for more than 50% of the GDP. For 9MFY08, collections from service tax were up about 37% YoY v/s a targeted rise of 32% for FY08. We believe the Finance Minister will bring in more services under the tax net to increase the contribution of services to tax revenues

2) Direct Taxes:

Direct taxes have been the high point of FY08, with collections having grown by40%in the first 10 months against the fiscal target growth of 17%. Exceeding indirect tax receipts for the first time, direct tax collection now looks set to cross Rs 3 lakh crore or (Rs 3 trillion) this fiscal. The budget estimate of a tax (both direct and indirect) to GDP ratio of 11.8% is likely to be exceeded. The government had set a target of Rs 2.67 lakh crore for direct tax receipts for this fiscal. The Government's initiatives for bringing in more people under the tax net have paid dividends with an increase in the number of taxpayers. The rising income levels of Indians have also resulted in more taxpayers. In the backdrop of a strong growth in tax collections, some relief to smaller taxpayers in the form of a higher exemption limit can be expected. Investments in long-term savings instruments may be encouraged with specifically directed tax exemptions. Some reduction in dividend distribution tax (DDT) is also expected.

Issue of Tax Compliance in Budget 2008 (expected)

On 6th of December 2007, the Finance Ministry announced the issue of tax compliance in budget 2008. It is learnt that the taxpayers would be benefited reviewing the direct tax rates and increasing the voluntary compliance. The level of tax compliance is increasing significantly for the last two or three years. During the fiscal year 2006-07, almost 31.9 million tax payers of India have filled their income tax returns, which is not an exciting figure at all keeping in mind the population in India. Government would like to get in more and more people to pay taxes in this fiscal. But the government has announced that it will focus more on the tax compliance issues. The Finance Ministry will not increase the maximum marginal rate of personal income tax further, for it may result in voluntary compliance. The Advisor to the Union Finance Minister of India has said that, the government will now be able to keep track on the ups and downs of voluntary compliance. Maximum marginal rate of personal income tax will be 30%. However, the base of the taxpayer is not large, as it ought to be because a big portion of the population of the Indian economy lies below the poverty line.

Sector Wise Expectations:

Automobilies:

Industry expects a uniform excise duty rate of16%for all cars- large and small. Currently, small cars are levied16%excise duty whereas all other cars and SUV's are levied 24%. Expectations of reduction of excise duty rate on two-wheelers from 16% to 12%or 8%.

Banking:

The moderating credit growth (22-23% YoY) and a relatively higher deposit growth would make RBI comfortable. The headline inflation has also moderated in the last couple of months. The interest rates have almost peaked and are likely to move southward from the next quarter purely due to demand and supply factors. Even though RBI has not given any signal by cutting benchmark rates, banks are expected to start reducing rates in due course of time. This is also evident from recent moves by many banks like SBI, Canara Bank, Allahabad Bank and Bank of India. Industry expects Relaxation in lock in period for savings to qualify for tax benefits, increase in ceiling for TDS on fixed deposits, tax exemptions on infrastructure financing. If the above expectations are fulfilled, it would have a positive impact on the sector as a whole and would help banks correct their asset liability mis-match. Increase in FII/FDI limits in PSU Banks from currently 20% to 49%. This would be a positive move, as it will help these banks raise capital for funding their growth and meeting the Basel II norms.

Capital Goods:

In the power sector, India expects to add a capacity of 80,000MWby 2012 and provide power for all. To attain this ambitious target, the Government had outlined a proposal for nine ultra mega power projects (each project having a capacity of 4,000 MWor more). Till date, only two of theseUMPPs have taken off. Investments in key industrial sectors are expected to soar to Rs.6924 bn over the next five years as compared with Rs.2274 bn worth of investments made over the past five years. Over the next five years, growth in investments will be driven by strong capacity additions, led by healthy growth in demand and high existing operating rates across some of the key industries. Reduction in excise duties on power equipment: Currently, while there is zero customs duty on mega power projects and 5% customs duty on non-mega size projects, excise duty continues to stay at 16%. Project developers are demanding reduction in excise duty to 8%, which is intended to translate into lower operational cost for consumers. Reduction in excise duty on energy efficient ACs: With a view to promote energy conservation, it is expected that the Government may reduce excise duty from 16% to 8% for ACs meeting Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE) standards. This should benefit consumer durables manufacturers like Voltas and Blue Star.

Construction:

Union Budget 2008-09 is expected to be positive for the infrastructure sector with higher budgetary allocations in different segments such as roads, irrigation, ports, airports, power etc. With infrastructure development requiring around $492 bn in the next five years, companies with significant experience in executing projects in this key segments are likely to benefit significantly.

Information Technology:

The IT/BPO services industry is expected to achieve 25% growth in FY08 to about $50 bn. Of these, exports are expected to grow by more than26%to nearly $40 bn. The sector has been facing significant challenges in FY08. Over the past three quarters, the challenge has been in the form of an appreciating rupee. The rupee has appreciated by about 10% in FY08, posing challenges for the sector and more so, for smaller companies. Since Q3FY08, the economic growth in the US has been slowing with an increasing probability of a recession. In case there is a prolonged recession in the US, the volume growth for Indian IT services/BPO sector can be impacted. Industry on the whole expects extension of tax exemption beyond FY10 & also Deemed fringe benefit at higher levels v/s IT service companies- should be treated at par. Nasscom expects extension of the Software Technology Parks (STPI) scheme beyond 2009.

FMCG:

India continues to remain a domestic consumption driven economy. To some extent, this insulates the Indian economy from global shocks in the form of a possible US recession or a financial credit crunch gripping other developed economies. Last year, the FMCG sector grew to Rs.750 bn at 10-15%, backed by growth in urban markets and a surge in demand for premium products. There are indications that the Sixth Pay Commission, expected to be passed this year, will recommend salary hike. This will put more purchasing power in the hands of the 4mn strong central government work force and induce households to upgrade to premium brands in personal care and non-durable consumer goods. Industry expects Relief on existing 16% excise duty on soaps and detergents & hoping reduction in the CST from 3% to 2%. Other expectations include reduction in VAT across food processing industry from 12.5% to around 4%. Reduction in CST will help boost consumption and demand buoyancy and would prove to be beneficial for food processing industry.

Healthcare:

Healthcare has emerged as one of the largest service sectors in India. Strong economic growth, along with increasing percapita income, growing healthcare awareness and expanding insurance coverage is creating a new and continuously expanding group of consumers. In the coming Budget the sector is hoping for incentivizing research and development, hoping to receive more tax benefits in order to enhance healthcare service/delivery. Significant medical needs of the Indian population provide huge potential for Indian healthcare service/delivery sector. This sector requires enormous investment over the next five years (approximately US$5 bn for bed additions). The Finance Minister may provide a boost to the sector's prospects by qualitative measures like, infrastructure status, increasing health spending allocation and providing incentives for the sector to grow.

Media:

From a longer-term perspective, it can be said that on the back of greater spending power, growing consumerism – offshoots of the healthy economic growth being projected -consumer discretionary sectors like media and entertainment will continue to enjoy healthy growth prospects. India's evolving demographics, with a high proportion in the income earning age, is expected to support consumption growth. Broadcasters are subject to levy of service tax@ 12.24% unlike print media that is exempt from the levy of service tax, therefore broadcasters expect parity to be drawn between the print and electronic medium. Multiplex alongwith the retail industry expects the removal of 12.36% service tax or allow set off against sales tax. Other expectations include reduction in excise duty and customs duty on equipments like set top boxes.

Metals & Mining:

Indian steel consumption is growing at a record rate of 12.6%. This is almost twice the 6.6% growth in supply (April-December 2007 period). India will turn net importer of steel for the first time in a decade as Indian steelmakers are struggling with greenfield expansions, primarily due to problems in mine allocations and land acquisition. Steel product prices are expected to rise sharply(>15%) during the year. However, unlike in the past, it would not boost the net profits of most of the Indian steel companies as the price rise is mainly driven by sustained raw material cost pressures. The environment is extremely positive for companies engaged in key raw materials of steel like coking coal, ferroalloy ores and iron ore. These companies are price takers and dependant of international product prices. Coal is fast emerging as a scare commodity. There has been sharp surge in coal prices globally driven by a massive fall in inventory levels and emerging supply constraints. Industry expects that customs duty of5%should be scrapped on import of coke and refractories. This move is very necessary for the Indian steel industry as it is unable to cope up with the sharp jump in coke prices, which is one of the critical raw materials and Indian industry is import dependent at large. Other expectations include cut in Import duty of nickel from present 5% to 2% & also reduction in ceiling on chrome ore xport. Current ceiling of 0.40MMTto be reduced to 0.30MMT.

Oil & Gas:

The Oil Ministry is seeking a series of tax and duty changes related to petroleum products retailing and energy exploration in a bid to reduce prices, subsidies and attract greater investment. Oil - FY08 has been negative for the Indian oil industry. With rising crude prices, the industry did quite well at the upstream front. However, the downstream sector faced severe problems regarding subsidies, taxes and pricing. OMCs continue to remain dependent on oil bonds. The practice of issuing oil bonds does not resolve the problem as it only defers the resolution while compounding economic and financial costs. Gas - The country's natural gas supply by FY10 is likely to more than double from current levels due to expected supply from the KG basin. Currently, a majority of the gas consumption in India is industrial, with city gas distribution (CNG and PNG) accounting for less than10%of the total consumption. Key expectations from this budget include equalization on import duty, which is presently 5% for crude and 7.5% for petroleum products.

Pharmaceuticals:

The pharmaceutical industry is facing several challenges like an appreciating rupee against foreign currencies, domestic pricing pressure and pressure on finding and developing new molecules. Given the huge potential held by the Indian Pharma sector, the Finance Minister is likely to give a boost to the sector's prospects by qualitative measures like reduction in duties, extending time line for exemption in respect of profits of a 100%EOU, tax exemption on income from intellectual properties. Industry expects to extend income tax exemption by another 5 years or till 2012, relaxation in certain conditions to avail 150% weighted average deduction on R&D expenditures. Expenditures on clinical trials and patent filings should be eligible for tax benefits.

Power:

In the Eleventh Five Year Plan period, the Government is aiming to add 78 GWcapacity and another 80 GWduring the Twelfth Five Year plan. Of the Eleventh Five Year Plan's additions, 50GWof capacity is already under construction and the orders for the rest are expected to be placed in the next six months. The Government has awarded three ultra mega power projects (UMPPs) and has plans to award another four projects. The recently awarded UMPPs and the other upcoming ones are expected to get an extension of tax holidays from 2010 to 2017, though they will continue to pay the Minimum Alternate Tax (MAT). The decision to extend is mainly due to noncommissioning of any of theUMPPunits by the stipulated period. To partially offset sharp spikes in prices of imported natural gas, the government is likely to withdraw the 5% customs duties for theLNGthat is used in the power generation projects. The above move will be welcome one for the power sector.

Aviation:

India's air carriers want the sales tax on jet fuel to be slashed to a uniform rate of four percent across the country and import duty to fall to five percent in the forthcoming budget to ease cost pressures. Jet fuel, which is almost three fourths costlier than international benchmarks, accounts for 40 percent of the operating cost of an Indian airline.

Pre-Budget 2008-2009 Analysis Report by Investorline (NJ IndiaInvest)

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Expectations from Union-Budget 2008-09

Tax incentive for long term savings

We recommend a separate limit for deductions under Section 80C for long-term saving instruments like life insurance. Currently the Rs 1 lakh deduction under Section 80C also includes short-term saving instruments like some Mutual Funds and Fixed Deposits. Life Insurance and Pensions are the only segments of financial services that address the needs of individuals in the long-term. Hence, the Government should look at encouraging people to save for long-term by providing a separate limit for long-term savings.

Incentive to invest in Pensions & Annuities

The tax benefit on pensions and long-term savings contribution need to be increased. The world over, the development of much needed long-term saving instruments have been supported by tax exemptions. Countries like the UK and Ireland provide incentives in form of tax credits even to non-tax payers by topping up their contributions by 20 to 25% and even upto to 40% for higher tax payers. If the government does not implement the tax benefit to at least Rs 1 lakh, separately, for pensions, we will see less long-term retirement savings amongst the masses. The salaried section will be hit badly as the corpus on retirement will be insufficient as most people are investing only Rs. 1 lakh at present in both long-term and short-term saving instruments.

Carry forward of losses for long-term gestation businessesInsurance business is a long-term gestation business. Currently, we are allowed to carry forward losses for only 8 years. Most insurers do not make profit even in the 10th year. Hence, we recommend that the period for carry forward of losses is increased to 12 years.

Service Tax

As per Notification no. 6/2005-ST dated 1-3-2005, there is no service tax chargeable for a person whose annual turnover is less than Rs 8 lakh per annum. However in the insurance sector, the insurance company is liable to pay service tax for its agents. We even have to pay for agents with turnover under Rs 8 lakh per annum. We recommend that insurers should not be liable to pay service tax on behalf of the agents whose turnover was less than 8 lakhs in the previous year.

Will foreign equity investment go up?

This is something that was promised to the life insurance players and has been discussed in every budget and we hope the Government is able to take a decision on the same at the earliest.

The growth of the Indian insurance sector is critical from the aspect of a social security measure. Fresh Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is required to fuel this and to ensure that customers in India get access to world-class products, which the foreign partners bring into India. The increase in FDI will give the Indian insurance industry the necessary capital infusion required for its development and expansion.

We should also bear in mind the beneficial impact that the entry of foreign players to the insurance sector has had on both direct and indirect employment in India. This together with the huge CSR initiatives launched by most companies has had a direct positive impact on Indias economy. Increased FDI limits will accelerate these trends.

We are hoping that all political parties will look at the FDI limit in an overall perspective and encourage the growth of the insurance industry in the country. In insurance the proposal is to raise FDI to only 49%, so the majority control still remains with the Indian partners.

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Taxation - Budget Expectations- 2008

Taxation

Budget Expect: Tax exemption limit may be raised

New Delhi: Now that the budget is around the corner, there is some good news for all tax payees.

This budget may just bring about some changes in the existing income tax structure. CNN-IBN sources say the Finance Minister is set to juggle the Tax Slabs so that those with lower income pay less tax.

The current exemption limit of Rs 1 lakh, ten thousand for men is expected to increase up to Rs 1 lakh 25 thousand rupees.

However, it would be better to not expect any reduction in tax rates.

The lowest tax rate of 10 per cent is now likely to extend from Rs 1.25 lakhs to Rs 2 lakhs, instead of Rs 1.10 lakhs to Rs 1.50 lakhs as it is, at present.

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Budget 2008 Expects- Hike Taxes on Roads

Raise taxes to restrict auto congestion, double road space in tier-II and tier-III cities, slash taxation on imported cars, give incentives to green vehicles

New Delhi: The auto industry is expecting a scenario where raising taxes will restrict the proliferation of automobiles, which in turn can curb the growing problems with traffic congestion, parking, and pollution.

Density of cars in India is among the lowest in the world and that the problem is not of having way too many cars or bikes but an infrastructure that never planned adequately for the demands of modern development.

Planners did not factor in the significance of fuel efficient and reliable new Japanese products like the 100 cc motorcycles in 1981 and the Maruti car in 1983 that suddenly accelerated demand.

India today has just one car for every 100 people as compared to 9 in Thailand, 6 in Malaysia, 2.6 in Japan, 2.1 in USA and UK. Auto pollution too is linked to auto density but it accounts for less global warming than power plants and deforestation.

Few planners realize that the automotive industry is the world’s largest manufacturing industry and the biggest driver of employment and growth. According to the Japan Automobile Manufacturer’s Association, automobiles contribute to 21% of Japan’s GDP and are the main engine of its economic growth employing 7.3 million people.

The Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) confirms that the auto industry currently contributes to nearly 12% of India’s GDP but is capable of far greater acceleration.

The impact on employment can be seen from the example of Maruti that directly employs about 6,500 people and will make over 700,000 cars this year. But the 1,000 trucks used to deliver them create employment for about 15,000 people. Their 2,000 dealers and workshops employ over 60,000. Maruti makes no steel, aluminium, castings, forgings, tyres, batteries, electricals, brakes, glass and components. Their vendors and suppliers of materials make 70% of their cars. The employment by the vendors, just dedicated to Maruti cars, must exceed 200,000.

Maruti’s production thus creates indirect employment for over 350,000 people and all the other makers of cars, trucks, tractors, and 2-wheelers may generate well over 2,000,000 regular jobs. There is also need for mechanics to service some 50 million 2-wheelers, 12 million cars and 6 million trucks and buses on the road plus those engaged in supplying music systems, accessories, etc. These regular jobs create another huge multiplier effect of tertiary employment for the millions who supply these salaried employees with food, clothing, shelter, education, medical facilities and entertainment.

Anyone who has seen the sudden explosion of new townships near the plants of Maruti, Tata Motors, Hyundai, M&M, Toyota, Ford, GM, Ashok Leyland, Hero Honda, Bajaj and TVS has witnessed the immediate impact of automobiles on employment and economic growth. Tea shops became hotels and hotels expand into housing estates. Grocery stores became supermarkets. Schools, hospitals, cinemas, restaurants and real estate developers multiply. Doctors, architects, builders, interior decorators, masons and carpenters and caterers stream in. Unlettered locals prosper as contractors and their children end up enrolling in better schools. Prosperity creates even more prosperity.

Double road space in smaller cities imperative

India’s annual growth rate at 8 to 9% is deceptive as it is pulled back by slow growth in agriculture. Studies show that urban middle class incomes are growing at 18% per annum. India is a country with a hot and dusty climate where large numbers of increasingly prosperous people will demand the comfort and efficiencies of motorized transport instead of the agony of bicycles, bullock carts and bad public transport.

Town planners will have to wake up to the need for finding ways to double the road space in Indian cities. There should also be taxes on cars parked on the streets

If they do not get the cars, bikes and quality public transport they need and the roads to drive them on, some 200 million people who use 70 million automobiles daily will become an angry political force. With growing prosperity, political compulsions will shift from pleasing the poor to pleasing all with real development. Town planners will have to wake up to the necessity of finding ways to double the road space in every Indian city. No new residential or commercial construction should be allowed without adequate ‘in site’ parking and there should be taxes on cars parked on the streets.

Re-examine taxation on indigenous cars

Every country needs taxes to feed the huge appetite of its government but few countries have so many government stomachs to feed. Most people are unaware that the multitude of taxes under the central government, state governments, local governments and authorities etc. has a horrific cascading effect. Every Indian made car carries the burden of 40% Modvat that includes the customs duties on its imports, plus 16 to 24% excise duty, another 12% sales tax plus octroi and local taxes. So the basic cost of every indigenous car is weighed down by 89 to 104% taxes.

Cut taxes on imported cars

The impact is much greater on imported vehicles. So whenever an Indian buys a foreign car he donates another to the government in taxes. Not surprisingly many cars sold in India cost much more than similar models in Thailand and other ASEAN countries. Most buyers in Europe, America and many developed countries pay a flat 15% VAT that includes all customs and local taxes. India should work towards a similar unified tax system.

Tax sops for green vehicles

There is also need for positive tax incentives to reduce the costs of low pollution electric cars and scooters and to encourage the wider use of less polluting CNG and Auto LPG vehicles as well as bio fuels like ethanol in petrol and jethropa oil for diesel vehicles.

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Budget 2008- Expectations: ASSOCHAM Survey of 200 CEOs

New Delhi: Budget proposals for fiscal 2008-09 are likely to be traditional for India Inc., since the primary challenge for the government would be to sustain the growth momentum. Respondents in an Assocham survey anticipate no significant tax cuts because they feel the FM’s top priority will be to hike revenue collections for higher budgetary allocations to sensitive sectors such as agriculture, education, health, defence and manufacturing.

In the absence of double-digit growth, which has to be achieved primarily on the strength of the manufacturing sector, it may be difficult for the economy to maintain 9%-plus growth. It is imperative, therefore, that special thrust be given to development of real sectors — agriculture and industry. Any strategy to ensure 15% growth in manufacturing sector cannot be exclusive of a strategy that involves growth of the farm sector

People’s budget: Most CEOs feel the man on the street will be a gainer fromthe budget. they say the FM is more likely to focus on honourng commitments for better infrastructure, higher food, fuel and fertilizer subsidies.

Concept of inclusive growth, implying greater employment opportunities for the unemployed, would be difficult to achieve in the absence of higher growth and better spread of manufacturing activities; higher the manufacturing growth, greater is its capacity to absorb surplus labour from agriculture and other land-based rural activities.

These findings were arrived at after a random survey was conducted by industry chamber, Assocham where 200 CEOs were polled and their opinion on Budget expectations sought.

Key Findings

• 85% felt that the forthcoming parliamentary and assembly elections would have not yielded sufficient influence on the FM to inspire him for creating fiscal concessions towards the corporate sector
• Aam aadmi (common man) might be a gainer but certainly not India Inc. as government would like to maintain growth inertia to honour its commitments for better infrastructure and improved agricultural conditions (hike subsidies for food, fertilizer, petroleum) by nearly 10%
• Over 90% CEOs felt that the FM would like to effect a conscious balancing act in his budget proposals to appease Indian industry and that there shall not be any additional cess levied
• 85% do not anticipate considerable fall in customs tariffs since the government would prefer to defer some of its statutory obligations towards WTO in a bid to spur revenue collections
• The expectation is that personal income tax ceiling would be raised by nearly 30,000 but those whose annual salary package exceeds Rs5 lakh, won’t find any relief in the income tax slabs as these would continued to be taxed under existing income tax slabs
• 15% CEOs maintained that the FM would not like to ignore industry’s demand for a reduced taxation structure, arguing that a fair tax structure that was put in place over the years, buoyancy in tax collection both direct and indirect is witnessed in government revenues as a result of better tax compliance and therefore there would be some legitimate cuts in the duty structure in budget 2008 – 09
• Majority CEOs have outright rejected this view and felt they do not expect the slightest reduction on excise front because FM would like to draw maximum possible taxation through excise tariff as long as a hue and cry is made out of it
• Members have urged the government to ensrue 15% manufacturing growth and to keep inflation at 5% over the next 10-15 years; also to give manufacturing industry ample incentives to enable them regulate prices by making supply side management stronger

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