Feb 19, 2008

The story of Rupee Appreciation & Depreciation and Forex Reserves

Re falls, yields at two-week high

The foreign exchange and bond markets witnessed volatile movements on Monday, propped by global concerns and dwindling cash conditions in local markets.

While the rupee ended the day at 39.77 levels versus the dollar, bond yields rose to a two-week high. Rates in the inter-bank call money market rose to 8%. The rupee, which had closed at 39.67 on Friday, fell against the dollar as sentiment was hit by risk aversion felt in Asian markets which increased the probability of capital outflows.

In the domestic market, there was considerable demand for dollars from oil companies, while foreign fund inflows remained stunted. In the government bond market, demand for bonds was largely affected as most traders were wary of a severe crunch in cash conditions going forward. The central bank has not been intervening in the forex market as the rupee has been on a weakening mode, given that there are no significance dollar inflows.

The yield on the benchmark paper, the 7.99% bond maturing in 2017, ended at 7.54%, above Friday’s close of 7.51%. It rose to as high as 7.57% levels during the day. The market is taking cognisance of the liquidity drying up, and where the rates are headed towards, depends on what kind of cash conditions we see in the market,” said a bond dealer. Another factor is that companies will be making advance tax payouts in March, which will further take a toll on liquidity. (Full Story)



Rupee falls on oil payment, global concerns
The rupee eased on Monday on import payments, while a bout of risk aversion across Asian markets raised the prospect of further capital outflows from local shares, dealers said.

The partially convertible rupee ended at 39.775/785 per dollar, off the previous close of 39.672/682.

"Importer demand from oil companies which was not covered by the forward market caused the depreciation," said a trader with a foreign bank. "Plus, there were not too many inflows on the capital side," he added.

Inflows of foreign capital are a key driver of the rupee. Foreign funds have been net buyers of nearly $500 million of stocks so far this month, according to official data, after selling about $4 billion in January. (Full Story)


Rupee strengthens on strong Asian stocks, inflows eyed
MUMBAI: The rupee rose in early trade on Monday, with demand for the local unit bolstered by gains in Asian equity markets, which raised the prospect of higher foreign capital inflows, dealers said.

The partially convertible rupee was at 39.647/655 per dollar, a shade stronger than Friday's close of 39.672/682. (Full Story)


Dollar steadies as clues awaited to US econ health
TOKYO: The dollar steadied against the yen and the euro on Monday as many investors stayed on the sidelines ahead of US data this week waiting for further clues on the health of the economy.

The dollar slid late last week when US reports revived fears that the economy was slipping into a recession, but sentiment was improving slightly after a drop in Wall Street share prices on Friday was relatively limited, traders said. (Full Story)


Rupee weakens despite market rally; forward premia hit
MUMBAI: The bond market fell victim to uncertainty over a government official’s comments that special oil bonds could be used by banks to meet statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) requirements. The yield on the 10-year benchmark bond rose to a high of 7.54% during the day and closed at 7.51%, above its previous close of 7.45%.

Petroleum secretary MS Srinivasan had told mediapersons that the finance ministry had approved a move to allow oil bonds issued in the current fiscal year to be used by banks to meet their SLR requirements.

Banks reacted to the comment by selling bonds, only to hear that the finance minister had later clarified that he hoped the bonds, which are given to state-owned fuel retailers to compensate them for selling fuel at government-set prices, would be given SLR status. According to market sources, the minister’s comments resulted in a knee-jerk reaction by banks, which made considerable losses because of the rumour.(Full Story)



Forex reserves down $1.8 bn
MUMBAI: Bank credit has been showing signs of a gradual pick up over the past few fortnights. Data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its weekly statistical supplement (WSS) show that bank-credit growth has risen to 22.8%. This figure has progressively risen over the past few weeks, from 21.5% in the second week of January this year. At current levels, the year-on-year bank credit stands at Rs 4.09 lakh crore.

Outstanding bank loans touched Rs 22,07,312 crore on February 1, up Rs 40,465 crore, from the previous fortnight’s levels. While food credit rose Rs 2,009 crore, non-food credit moved up Rs 38,456 crore during the fortnight. Simultaneously, outstanding deposits with commercial banks touched Rs 30,89,540 crore as on February 1, rising Rs 58,899 crore over the previous fortnight’s levels. While demand deposits rose Rs 57,794 crore, term deposits with commercial banks rose Rs 1,106 crore. Investments in government and other approved securities by banks dropped to Rs 9,50,589 crore as on February 1, down Rs 7,908 crore from the previous fortnight’s levels. (Full Story)

Source- Economics Times

Market Round Up - 19th Feb 2008

Market Round Up - 19th Feb 2008

FIIs in buying mode

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) bought shares worth net Rs 1147.50 crore on Friday, 15 February 2008, compared to their selling of Rs 1183.10 crore on Thursday, 14 February 2008.

FII inflow of Rs 1147.50 crore on 15 February 2008 was a result of gross purchases Rs 3898 crore and gross sales Rs 2750.50 crore. The 30-share BSE Sensex rose 348.62 points or 1.96% at 18,115.25 on that day.

FII outflow in February 2008 totaled Rs 315.40 crore (till 15 February 2008). FII outflow in calendar year 2008 totaled Rs 13,351.10 crore (till 15 February 2008).

There are a total of 1,290 FIIs registered with the Securities & Exchange Board of India (Sebi).

CRISIL net profit rises 291.74% in the December 2007 quarter

Net profit of CRISIL rose 291.74% to Rs 27.50 crore in the quarter ended December 2007 as against Rs 7.02 crore during the previous quarter ended December 2006. Sales rose 102.54% to Rs 84.68 crore in the quarter ended December 2007 as against Rs 41.81 crore during the previous quarter ended December 2006.

For the full year, net profit rose 89.06% to Rs 70.67 crore in the year ended December 2007 as against Rs 37.38 crore during the previous year ended December 2006. Sales rose 73.99% to Rs 255.32 crore in the year ended December 2007 as against Rs 146.74 crore during the previous year ended December 2006.

PM confident of sustaining 9% economic growth

On 15 February 2008, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh while addresing the annual meeting of the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (Ficci) in New Delhi, expressed confidence on sustaining a 9% annual economic growth despite a possible global slowdown.

The minister also cautioned India must be aware that it cannot be completely insulated from chilly global winds that may blow in its direction.

He further said keeping the lid on inflation rate was a priority for his government, but controlling the price-line did not mean growth would be sacrificed.

Amid fears that a hike in petrol and diesel prices might fuel inflation, he said the government has taken an important policy stand to keep inflation under check and ensure that growth is more inclusive. The minister termed inflation as iniquitous tax explaining that it hurts the poor more than the rich. Therefore, it is essential to ensure that the poor are not adversely affected by high inflation, particularly that of basic items of consumption.

Inflation down 4.07% in the week ended 2 February 2008

Annual inflation, based on the wholesale price index, moved down 4.07% in the week ended 2 February 2008 compared with 4.11% in the week ended 26 January 2008. Inflation was 6.58% in the corresponding week a year ago.

The market estimate stood at 4.16%.

Prices of fruits and vegetables decreased 3% and those of arhar, masur and condiments and spicesn reduced 1% each. Prices of jet fuel also eased in the week.

Inflation figure for the week ended 8 December 2008 was revised upwards to 3.845 as against 3.65% reported earlier.

An eventful week for US Market

Lots of events dominated the US during the week that ended on Friday, 15 February, 2008. But the best part was that indices registered gains for the week after, each shedding more than 4% last week. Market closed higher in the first three days of the week but slipped in the later two.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 166 points for the week. Tech - heavy Nasdaq gained 17 points. S&P 500 added 18.7 points.

On Monday, 11 February, it was reported that effective 19 February, 2008, Bank of America and Chevron will be added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average in place of Altria Group and Honeywell respectively. But on that very day, another Dow component AIG led to Dows downslide.

AIG was a major drag on the market on Monday after the company clarified its prior disclosures regarding CDOs saying that it has yet to determine the decline in value of its portfolio, and is still accumulating market data to update its valuation. The stock slipped by 12% and Dow would have ended the day higher, if not for AIG.

But the biggest news of the week was on Tuesday, 12 February, when it came to light that Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has made an offer to several flagging bond insurers. Berkshire Hathaway has sent an offer to reinsure the municipal bond holdings of Ambac, MBIA and FGIC. Berkshire offered to take a liability of $800 billion, adding $5 billion of its resources. Berkshire pledged there would be no distribution or management fees taken for 10 years. Dow ended the day higher by more than 100 points. (Full Story)

Taxation - Budget Expectations- 2008

Taxation

Budget Expect: Tax exemption limit may be raised

New Delhi: Now that the budget is around the corner, there is some good news for all tax payees.

This budget may just bring about some changes in the existing income tax structure. CNN-IBN sources say the Finance Minister is set to juggle the Tax Slabs so that those with lower income pay less tax.

The current exemption limit of Rs 1 lakh, ten thousand for men is expected to increase up to Rs 1 lakh 25 thousand rupees.

However, it would be better to not expect any reduction in tax rates.

The lowest tax rate of 10 per cent is now likely to extend from Rs 1.25 lakhs to Rs 2 lakhs, instead of Rs 1.10 lakhs to Rs 1.50 lakhs as it is, at present.

Market on 18th Feb 2008

Markets end marginally in red

After opening in the positive, markets witnessed selling pressure and slipped into the red. The markets then traded in red for most part of the day but managed to close off the lows of the day. While the Sensex was down 67.20 points or 0.37% at 18,048.05, the Nifty lost 26.0 points or 0.49% to close at 5276.90. Broadmarket indices outperformed the frontline indices as the BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices were up 0.65% and 1.40% respectively. This explains the positive market breadth as A/D ratio was 2:1 on the BSE. NSE cash turnover was Rs.10,920.95cr Vs. Rs.14,206.78cr on Friday.

Sectorally, it was a mixed bag. While IT, Oil, Metal and Realty were the underperforming sectors, strength was seen in select Banking, Sugar and Fertiliser stocks. Gainers amongst the index pivotals were M&M, ITC, Hindalco, HUL and ICICI Bank. Losers were Satyam Comp, Tata Motors, TCS, DLF and BHEL.

With the main indices yet to confirm that they are in a fresh uptrend and also due to continued global uncertainties, we continue with our strategy of taking a small exposure with respect to fresh positions in order to get your legs into the door. Aggressive positions can be built up once the markets enter a confirmed uptrend.